Handley_Page
Draco interdum Vincit
- Joined
- Aug 18, 2007
- Posts
- 78,212
I'd love to know which or what it was that's pushed a load of Low Pressure areas into the UK. It put a right damper on our Bank Holiday Weekend.
Atlantic Hurricane Season
- Thread starter trysail
- Start date
JKendallDane
Plot Bunny Herder
- Joined
- Jun 26, 2012
- Posts
- 6,897
We are rapidly coming up on the ten year anniversary of Hurricane Ivan devastating the Florida panhandle.
The memories of that alone are enough for me for this year's storm season!
The memories of that alone are enough for me for this year's storm season!
trysail
Catch Me Who Can
- Joined
- Nov 8, 2005
- Posts
- 25,593
Look out Bermuda !!!!!!
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
...Hurricane Gonzalo continues towards Bermuda
CPA: 7pm Friday within 25nm, directly over the
Island...
...Most extreme winds (south-southwesterly 90-110
knots gusts to 140 knots in elevated areas) are
expected this evening...
...Seas rapidly build 35-40 feet in advance of high
tide at 5pm. A dangerous and life-threatening
storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding and will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves...
http://www.weather.bm/index.asp
Last edited:
Handley_Page
Draco interdum Vincit
- Joined
- Aug 18, 2007
- Posts
- 78,212
Reports indicate that the UK is definitely gonna get it big, some time next week!
trysail
Catch Me Who Can
- Joined
- Nov 8, 2005
- Posts
- 25,593
R.I.P.
William M. Gray, Ph.D. (1929-2016) was a major figure in advancing the field of seasonal hurricane forecasting from one that was formerly the sole province of crystal ball readers and The Farmer's Almanac to one approximating an actual science with demonstrable predictive skill.
He accomplished this by the application of hitherto unknown variables (ENSO, Sahel) that contribute to the formation of tropical cyclones.
From Wikipedia:
...Among Gray's most prominent achievements were the establishment of seasonal hurricane forecasts and finding that hurricane activity is cyclical.[10] He is widely regarded as a pioneer in hurricane research, particularly for the seasonal forecasts.[1] Throughout his career, Gray published more than 80 papers and 60 research reports.[5] Klotzbach referred to him as "one of the greatest minds in hurricane research".[9]
In the late 1970s, Gray noticed a trend of low hurricane activity in the North Atlantic basin during El Niño years. He was the first researcher to make a connection between such events and positive results led him to pursue further research. He found numerous factors across the globe influence tropical cyclone activity, such as connecting wet periods over the African Sahel to an increase in major hurricane landfalls along the United States East Coast. However, his findings also showed inconsistencies when only looking at a single factor as a primary influence.[8]
Utilizing his findings, Gray developed an objective, statistical forecast for seasonal hurricane activity; he predicted only the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, foregoing specifics on tracks and potential landfalls due to the aforementioned inconsistencies.[8] Gray issued his first seasonal forecast during July 1983, which used the statistical relationships between tropical cyclone activity, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi-Biennial oscillation (QBO), and Caribbean basin sea-level pressures.[11][12] The endeavor proved modestly successful.[8] He subsequently issued forecasts ahead of the start of the Atlantic hurricane season in May and before the peak of the season in August...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_M._Gray
In the late 1970s, Gray noticed a trend of low hurricane activity in the North Atlantic basin during El Niño years. He was the first researcher to make a connection between such events and positive results led him to pursue further research. He found numerous factors across the globe influence tropical cyclone activity, such as connecting wet periods over the African Sahel to an increase in major hurricane landfalls along the United States East Coast. However, his findings also showed inconsistencies when only looking at a single factor as a primary influence.[8]
Utilizing his findings, Gray developed an objective, statistical forecast for seasonal hurricane activity; he predicted only the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, foregoing specifics on tracks and potential landfalls due to the aforementioned inconsistencies.[8] Gray issued his first seasonal forecast during July 1983, which used the statistical relationships between tropical cyclone activity, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi-Biennial oscillation (QBO), and Caribbean basin sea-level pressures.[11][12] The endeavor proved modestly successful.[8] He subsequently issued forecasts ahead of the start of the Atlantic hurricane season in May and before the peak of the season in August...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_M._Gray
R. Richard
Literotica Guru
- Joined
- Jul 24, 2003
- Posts
- 10,380
RIP, a giant!
trysail
Catch Me Who Can
- Joined
- Nov 8, 2005
- Posts
- 25,593
June 1st marks the commencement of the Atlantic hurricane season.
In 2016, names for Atlantic tropical cyclones will be:
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter
trysail
Catch Me Who Can
- Joined
- Nov 8, 2005
- Posts
- 25,593
2016 Atlantic tropical cyclones:
1. Alex ×
2. Bonnie ×
3. Colin ×
4. Danielle ×
5. Earl ×
6. Fiona ×
7. Gaston ×
8. Hermine ×
9. Ian ×
10. Julia ×
11. Karl ×
12. Lisa ×
13. Matthew ×
14. Nicole ×
15. Otto
16. Paula
17. Richard
18. Shary
19. Tobias
20. Virginie
21. Walter
Last edited:
Handley_Page
Draco interdum Vincit
- Joined
- Aug 18, 2007
- Posts
- 78,212
trysail
Catch Me Who Can
- Joined
- Nov 8, 2005
- Posts
- 25,593
Michael "Piltdown" Mann (creator [literally] of the now infamous "Hockey Stick") is fighting desperately to preserve what little remains of his tattered integrity.
He was caught red-handed by the dogged efforts of Steve McIntyre (see: [url]https://climateaudit.org/multiproxy-pdfs/
)and the Climategate emails served to confirm his deceptive nature. He is a serial prevaricator.
He is not noted for truthfulness. The resort to cartoons is a clear measure of the extent of his desperation.
See: "A Disgrace To The Profession"
He is not noted for truthfulness. The resort to cartoons is a clear measure of the extent of his desperation.
See: "A Disgrace To The Profession"
Last edited:
trysail
Catch Me Who Can
- Joined
- Nov 8, 2005
- Posts
- 25,593
Take cover in the Northern Leewards.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
(National Hurricane Center)
trysail
Catch Me Who Can
- Joined
- Nov 8, 2005
- Posts
- 25,593
2017 Atlantic tropical cyclone names:
1. Arlene ×
2. Bret ×
3. Cindy ×
4. Don ×
5. Emily ×
6. Franklin ×
7. Gert ×
8. Harvey ×
9. Irma ×
10. Jose ×
11. Katia ×
12. Lee
13. Maria
14. Nate
15. Ophelia
16. Philippe
17. Rina
18. Sean
19. Tammy
20. Vince
21. Whitney
Last edited:
