Dow 10K

[JohnnySavage]

Next week.

[off2bed]

How much you got riding on that?

[JohnnySavage]

Originally Posted by off2bed

How much you got riding on that?

I'm up 40% for the year so I've moved into bonds and utility stocks for the rest of the year. My share of the firm's profits is based on ROI and I don't like to leave money on the table.

[islandman]

Originally Posted by JohnnySavage

I'm up 40% for the year so I've moved into bonds and utility stocks for the rest of the year. My share of the firm's profits is based on ROI and I don't like to leave money on the table.

You should manage my 401K because John Hancock sure as hell isn't up 40% YTD!

[JohnnySavage]

Originally Posted by islandman

You should manage my 401K because John Hancock sure as hell isn't up 40% YTD!

Swine flu, AIG, Sirius and HTGC were very good to me this year.

[islandman]

Originally Posted by JohnnySavage

Swine flu, AIG, Sirius and HTGC were very good to me this year.

Thoughts on the PC rebound in Q4 and as a result of the launch of Windows 7?

What's HTGC?

[JohnnySavage]

Originally Posted by islandman

Thoughts on the PC rebound in Q4 and as a result of the launch of Windows 7?

What's HTGC?

Hercules Technology Growth Capital. I provides capital for tech companies. A great stock that has paid about 20% annual dividends for the past 5 years, and the stock itself is up about 30% this year not counting the dividend.

Based on the recent retail numbers, you have to assume that Christmas is going to be good for PC makers/retailers. I don't think it would have anything to do with Windows, but rather people have put off buying new toys for about a year now.

[berry juice]

Originally Posted by JohnnySavage

I'm up 40% for the year so I've moved into bonds and utility stocks for the rest of the year. My share of the firm's profits is based on ROI and I don't like to leave money on the table.

*bonds and utility stocks*.......chicken

the current inflation will pull your previous gains back

[JohnnySavage]

Originally Posted by berry juice

*bonds and utility stocks*.......chicken

Take the money and run!

[JohnnySavage]

Originally Posted by berry juice

*bonds and utility stocks*.......chicken

the current inflation will pull your previous gains back

Inflation is half of the bond yield at the moment. Besides, everyone has a level playing field when it comes to factoring in inflation.

[berry juice]

Originally Posted by JohnnySavage

Take the money and run!

its a perfect time to play, if you know how to do it. Stocks are so cheap.

bonds...boring

[JohnnySavage]

Originally Posted by berry juice

its a perfect time to play, if you know how to do it. Stocks are so cheap.

bonds...boring

Buy low, sell high?

[islandman]

Originally Posted by JohnnySavage

Hercules Technology Growth Capital. I provides capital for tech companies. A great stock that has paid about 20% annual dividends for the past 5 years, and the stock itself is up about 30% this year not counting the dividend.

Based on the recent retail numbers, you have to assume that Christmas is going to be good for PC makers/retailers. I don't think it would have anything to do with Windows, but rather people have put off buying new toys for about a year now.

My thesis is the following: CAPEX is no longer being cut and the PC replacement cycle is long-overdue, due in part to the economic uncertainty, but also because of the anti-Vista sentiment so prevalent within enterprises. So, I'm expecting to see a natural replacement cycle. Now, the PC supply chain was depleted as vendors worked off inventory, but now the supply chain is being re-stocked. Case in point, Intel's upped guidance last month. $64K question is whether this is normal re-stocking or if the OEMS are seeing stronger end-user demand.

I think its both, with an additional kicker of Windows 7 as a catalyst. Windows 7 isn't going to replace Vista overnight, but the fundamentals are there and sound, I believe. As such, I don't own MSFT, but rather the 'core components' of a computer: NVDA, PTEC, INTC, STX. I say 'core' because netbooks is still the only segment seeing Y/Y growth, and though price-points are lower in netbooks, they'll generate increased volumes for BIOS, processors, graphics and HDD. I'm up 50%+ on STX, NVDA and PTEC; ~19% on INTC.



ETA: ORCL's report just now, I think, supports my thesis given that its revenues were light, an indication that the software slice of enterprise CAPEX isn't growing, which makes sense if you're a CIO facing an upgrade cycle. 2-3-4 quarters out and you'll see ORCL's top-line grow again.

[TurdFergeson]

quite a climb out of the basement:

[trysail]

Originally Posted by JohnnySavage

Next week.

Uh, huh. As if you know.

After thirty-five years in buy-side investment research and investment management, one thing I do know is that the folk who say they know are almost always the ones who don't know.

[islandman]

Originally Posted by trysail

Uh, huh. As if you know.

After thirty-five years in buy-side investment research and investment management, one thing I do know is that the folk who say they know are almost always the ones who don't know.

Johnny - I suggest you add a safe harbor statement to your sigline. You never know who will construe your posts on a porn board as investment advice. While you're at it, don't post again till you get your 7 & 63.

[SeanH]

Originally Posted by islandman

Johnny - I suggest you add a safe harbor statement to your sigline. You never know who will construe your posts on a porn board as investment advice. While you're at it, don't post again till you get your 7 & 63.

But it's posted in GREEN and a funny font, you have to take that kind of thing seriously.

[JohnnySavage]

Originally Posted by islandman

Johnny - I suggest you add a safe harbor statement to your sigline. You never know who will construe your posts on a porn board as investment advice. While you're at it, don't post again till you get your 7 & 63.

I hold no licenses (I think even my driver's license is expired) and only invest my company's money. Any advice I give, if my musings could be considered advice, is that of a mere lay-man.

[JohnnySavage]

Originally Posted by SeanH

But it's posted in GREEN and a funny font, you have to take that kind of thing seriously.

It reminds me of a guy in a bow tie. How can you not take a guy in a bow tie seriously?

[trysail]

Originally Posted by SeanH

But it's posted in GREEN and a funny font, you have to take that kind of thing seriously.

Those of us who take investing seriously, who have played by the rules and who have done their level best to emulate the teachings of Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle have seen far too much "legal" theft perpetrated by the likes of Goldman, Morgan, Dean, Alex., Stanley, Stupid, Lynch, Salomon, Paine, Fido, Robertson, Friedman, Weisel, T. Rowe, Montgomery & Hambrecht to have much in the way of a sense of humor when it comes to these things.

[JackAssJim]

Originally Posted by JohnnySavage

I hold no licenses (I think even my driver's license is expired) and only invest my company's money. Any advice I give, if my musings could be considered advice, is that of a mere lay-man.

I hold many licenses. What do you need?

[JohnnySavage]

Originally Posted by JackAssJim

I hold many licenses. What do you need?

Medical?

I always wanted to pretend to be a doctor. Maybe get a Winnebago and give free breast exams.

[JackAssJim]

Originally Posted by JohnnySavage

Medical?

I always wanted to pretend to be a doctor. Maybe get a Winnebago and give free breast exams.

Winnebago's are so 90's.

I always pictured you as an AirStream type of man.

[JohnnySavage]

Originally Posted by JackAssJim

Winnebago's are so 90's.

I always pictured you as an AirStream type of man.

As a doctor, I'd have to project an image of cutting-edge technology.

[JackAssJim]

Originally Posted by JohnnySavage

As a doctor, I'd have to project an image of cutting-edge technology.

True. And a specialty.

Maybe cater to the rich. On an island perhaps. Don't shave or wear a tie and have a brother in the med field.


I think it has a chance.