Old 07-13-2012, 05:30 PM   #1
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Old 07-20-2012, 08:52 AM   #2
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What do the poll numbers say, if there have been any?

It'd be great to see a state - any state - approve this on a referendum vote. The fact that it got thumped in California makes me less hopeful, but since then, the national discussion has shifted, as have polling numbers on this. Also, I can't remember if Cali's vote was in an off-presidential year. Dems tend to not vote as strongly in non-presidential years, so that could help the likelihood of the equal rights vote in Md.

In an unrelated matter, seems like O'Malley is REALLY ambitious. Think he'll run for the Democratic nomination in 2016?
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Old 07-23-2012, 08:34 PM   #3
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any bets on the outcome?

My prediction is that we win 58% - 42%.

On the Ballot
That's an intriguingly specific prediction.
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Old 07-24-2012, 09:52 AM   #4
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Old 08-03-2012, 08:34 PM   #5
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Old 08-07-2012, 12:18 AM   #6
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Cautiously optimistic. A recent Maryland poll shows a majority of Marylanders validating the new equality law.

Also in November: Its on the ballot in Maine, Minnesota and Washington. After never having been supported by the voters, marriage equality has a shot at multiple wins.
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Old 08-11-2012, 12:23 PM   #7
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Hopefully it will work out, I am not a big fan of ballot initiatives for the very simple fact that they don't always represent good law or quite frankly, the will of the people either. Proposition 8 in California in part happened because opponents of same sex marriage were more motivated to come out then those who believe in it (it is why polls don't mean much, they should also ask people when polled what percentage of elections do they vote in...). The other problem is we are in an age where matters are no longer state matters, the Mormon church spent 10's of millions of dollars in California on negative ads and other propaganda (and when asked about this influence the church said something to the effect they were only supporting the right of the people to vote as they saw fit; I wonder if they see the irony in that, that if the Mormon church had been subjected to a vote by ballot their members would likely have been killed ages ago, if it weren't for the first amendment.....).

It probably will boil down to how motivated independent and democratic leaning voters are to go to the polls; if aren't thrilled enough by the presidential candidates to vote, GOP base voters will decide the issue and it won't pass.
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Old 08-13-2012, 10:48 PM   #8
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Angry

Don't start me on the Mormon Cult....I have been severly victimized by their institutionalized hatred.

And once again tis morning I was told that the "management" of the supermarket my casino is in wanted me gone. Since I have never even met "the management" and have offended no one in the month I have been there, ycan bet your bottom dollar it was a Mormon manager and my company illegally told him I was transexual.

We do have a transexual anti-discrimination law in this state, and I am going to get to the bottom of this.

That information is medical information protected by HIPAA, and no ones business but mine.

So I am working tonitght at the store across the street, but may be going back to my old store 16 miles away. And I lost my extra shift costing me $360 monthly, which the $60/wk gas savings made up for partly.
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Old 08-23-2012, 12:57 AM   #9
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Hopefully it will work out, I am not a big fan of ballot initiatives for the very simple fact that they don't always represent good law or quite frankly, the will of the people either. Proposition 8 in California in part happened because opponents of same sex marriage were more motivated to come out then those who believe in it (it is why polls don't mean much, they should also ask people when polled what percentage of elections do they vote in...). The other problem is we are in an age where matters are no longer state matters, the Mormon church spent 10's of millions of dollars in California on negative ads and other propaganda (and when asked about this influence the church said something to the effect they were only supporting the right of the people to vote as they saw fit; I wonder if they see the irony in that, that if the Mormon church had been subjected to a vote by ballot their members would likely have been killed ages ago, if it weren't for the first amendment.....).

It probably will boil down to how motivated independent and democratic leaning voters are to go to the polls; if aren't thrilled enough by the presidential candidates to vote, GOP base voters will decide the issue and it won't pass.
Yes. Initiatives are the best and worst forms of decision-making. (Depending on whether I support an issue.) I do tend to think that in general, wise, educated elected officials with the time and courage to eschew fear and think about the long term are the best policy makers. But who's seen any of those lately?

There was a most hopeful poll a few weeks ago. This guy tells us why it's smarter to doubt it.
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Old 08-23-2012, 08:02 PM   #10
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:51 AM   #11
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I do not doubt his theories and statements. I think the President Obama bounce may well have faded on this issue by the time November rolls around and people will go back to voting their innate bigot. It's easy to stand with a poll worker and pretend to be fair and balanced it is harder to mark the box that gives a bunch of freaks and abby normals "new Rights".
As I'm sure you know, the national polls have undergone a large shift on this issue, and of course, more so for younger people. Large youth turnout, better chance of passage. This seems like the first chance for an initiative in a presidential year, in a liberal state, since public opinion has shifted so much.

The phenomenon you describe has also existed among white voters polled about black politicians; the "I don't want to look publicly racist" bump. Maybe that's occuring now with polls in the Old Line State.

I like the phrase "voting their innate bigot," btw, and am going to steal it.
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Old 11-07-2012, 08:16 PM   #12
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:16 AM   #13
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The Catholic Church must be plotzing right about now, Maryland, the original Catholic Colony (and still relatively heavily Roman Catholic) passes same sex marriage by ballot? Now the old farts at the vatican really know they are shooting blanks, couldn't get traction with this, couldn't get traction with the idiotic contraception issue (Obama took Wisconsin, a state with a heavy roman catholic population, by more then 10 points, and that is the state Ryan came from)..and they also elected a dyke to the senate, go figure *lol*.

I am really happy to see this, it means that the tide of legal same sex marriage is moving along quite nicely. Once enough states have passed same sex marriage, it is likely that the courts will have no choice but to invoke the full faith and credit clause in terms of marriage, which in turn means states that refuse to validate same sex marriage will be forced to accept the marriages of other states I suspect. DOMA is going to be wiped out in the spring, while Sclalia and the rest of the defenders of the vatican are going to try to find any way to wiggle out of it they can, the majority is going to overturn it, DOMA was bad law, it violates the equal protection clause and more importantly, it was congress deciding what a legal marriage is, which congress has no right doing, that right is owned by the states. If a state says a marriage is legal, then the feds have to recognize it.
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