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When to pull out?

jaF0

jaF0

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Dec 31, 2009
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Get your mind out of the gutter even if this is a sex board.




The Market weenies, the market. It's giving me the heebie-jeebies. What goes up must come down, right? But where is too far up? I can't really take a hit like '08. Or at least I wouldn't be very happy about it. It's all in a Government mutual fund and I can either leave it there or put it in an annuity. But if I do that, what if it hasn't topped out yet?
 
To make a decision you have to decide your own tolerance to risk and your timeline for needing the money. Take your age into account and factor in your current balance of stock, bonds and cash. You should be able to find tools for determining asset allocation on the web. I know that Vanguard has one and I would expect all the other players to have something similar. When you take the survey for risk tolerance, be honest with yourself and don't give the answer that you think you are supposed to give. The right answer is the one that will let you sleep at night while knowing you did the best you could.
 
08 was huge. I took a 38% hit that year. But since than have had it rise by 11% a year. Down 8 during Greece crisis but up 24% the next. Take quite a bit to equal the Great Recession of 08-09. France went middle of the road so European investments are safe. I worried over Le Pen and plans for France to exit the EU. The Republicans are generally good for business. Trump might interject a bit of uncertainty in the markets but in the long run should not have that much of a bad effect. The Bank of Canada expects the US economy to rebound this year and do okay.
 
jaF0 said:
What goes up must come down, right? But where is too far up? I can't really take a hit like '08. Or at least I wouldn't be very happy about it. It's all in a Government mutual fund and I can either leave it there or put it in an annuity. But if I do that, what if it hasn't topped out yet?
Click to expand...

What you're looking for is the magic answer no one has...or won't have until it's too late. Obviously the point in investing is to increase your net worth. How much have you already gained at this point? If it's a significant amount, and worth the exchange, the logical and safe thing to do would be pull out...protect your initial investment and let the gains ride it out until you're satisfied. Any loss thereafter would be minimal. Greed is the downfall of many. When is enough, enough? Yes, it will eventually top out...how big of a risk taker are you? Only you can make that decision. There are no 'experts' in this field.
 
I'm currently sitting with 50% of my portfolio in cash (money market). I think the market is overdue for a correction, and I want to swoop in Warren Buffett-style in the event of a correction.

The rest I have in technology stocks and pacific rim growth.

I'm nervous.
 
tryn2Bgood said:
What you're looking for is the magic answer no one has...or won't have until it's too late. Obviously the point in investing is to increase your net worth. How much have you already gained at this point? If it's a significant amount, and worth the exchange, the logical and safe thing to do would be pull out...protect your initial investment and let the gains ride it out until you're satisfied. Any loss thereafter would be minimal. Greed is the downfall of many. When is enough, enough? Yes, it will eventually top out...how big of a risk taker are you? Only you can make that decision. There are no 'experts' in this field.
Click to expand...

Pfft. Talk to 4est_4est_Gump. He's correctly timed the last six market swings. of course, he tells us about these YUUUGE successes after the fact, but still....
 
Be brave when others are scared and scared when they are brave.
 
This morning, the news was about the big fall. S&P was down the most in a month or whatever, down 10 or 12 . At closing it's back up to neutral, off just $0.90 or so.
 
The market only has 2 kinds.
1. Short kill-jump in at low then jump out at high.
2. Long haul-looking to the future and letting it ride until you really need it.

For 1 you have to be real good at judging while taking a gambol, for 2 you have to have nerve of steel to just let it sit no matter what and trust initial judgment the company will stick around for a while.

As you said the market is up and down its all in the timing.
 
I choose not to give a fuck about hamster wheel games designed to fool the working class into believing in a bright future through giving your money to others to spend for you.

That being said, i would look for companies that benefit from consumer inflation and interest rate increases.
 
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Took the S&P 500 over 14 years to go from 1,500 (March 22, 2000) to 2,000 (August 26, 2014) and only 3 years to go from 2,000 to 2,500.
 
1,500 March 22, 2000

1,600 May 3, 2013



Bush II kinda sucked.
 
[Please do not post copyright material without citation, and then limit your excerpts to less than 5 paragraphs, per our forum guidelines.] - Last Warning
 
Last edited by a moderator:
The fund I'm looking at has gained a little over $8,600 YTD.

Next three months? Who knows.
 
Talk to your friends and neighbors. If most are feeling pretty confident, sell. If most are nervous, buy. Leaving a little on the table never hurt anybody.
 
The tickers I checked all stopped early today and I saw 'closing' figures well before 4P EST.

I can't find any reason why.
 
what crashes will uncrash.
It might take awhile but it will.

First off what age bracket are you in?

Put what you are afraid of losing in something stable and Let'er rip tater chip!

The gambling part invest in large companies 50% small companies 30% and the rest in foreign investments or something else risky with high returns maybe.

Think of this, IF large and small business fail the country fails and then money is toilet paper anyway.

So do what you can and don't worry...
 
We know in our hearts that the magic 8 ball has an answer for our questions.

October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February. - Mark Twain, Pudd'nhead Wilson
 
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