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Romney 51% - Obama 48%

KingOrfeo said:
And then there's the hurricane -- Obama did his job vigorously and acted presidential, and Romney embarrassed himself with a fake drive for canned goods and stuff, which the Red Cross does not need (they need cash; in-kind gifts are too much trouble to handle and process).
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Your link is oddly irrelevant.
 
CHNOPS said:
The hysterical OP's numbers are based on last week's rolling average, since Gallup hasn't been conducting rolling polls since 10/28. It even says so on the very column he got the numbers from.

Lots of polls say lots of things. To the extent that they're meaningful at all, they're only meaningful in the aggregate.

Among the poll aggregators, RCP uses a relatively simple averaging algorithm, Nate Silver uses a more nuanced one. Neither takes the national polls too much into consideration at this point. All show Obama leading in the states that give him the most paths to 270+.

Anything can happen, of course. But the OMG GALLUP SAID THE WORLD IS GONNA END!!! approach is comic relief at best at this point.
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Polls mean little in a close race, what matters is who looks like a winner. In close races undecided voters wanna go with the winner. Bronco Bama doesnt look like a winner.
 
Wrong Element said:
You're giving Gallup way too much respect based on their brand name.

After Rob mentioned something about Gallup's track record, specifically those instances where they seem to be out of step with other polls, I looked up what Nate Silver had to say on the subject, and it was something of an eye-opener.

Bottom line is that there's no objective reason to give one poll (Gallup) more credence or even equal credence to multiple polls that are saying something different. I still think the discrepancy has to do with Gallup's likely voter screen, because what they're saying about all registered voters isn't too different from what everyone else is finding.
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TPM had an article on a Very Special Poll today in Ohio. It seems that a Rapepublican group commissioned a poll that showed that Romney was...for the first time EVAR...ahead in Ohio by 3%. The cross-tabs showed a net favorable rating for Romney of 22%.....far, far eclipsing the previous favorable rating record for Romney, which is a lousy 2% net favorable.

Now, you could believe that Romney magically became ten times more favorable in less than a week. And Vetty, AJ, Koala and the Wuss would agree with you.

Or you could adopt a more cynical stance, and say this poll was gaming the system. What is the net result of this single poll? For Poll Trackers that do NOTHING but average poll results together, this single poll brings Obama's lead in Ohio down from a healthy 3 to 5% to a within-the-margin-of-error 0 to 1%..Voila! Instant Mittmentum!

Unlike the cowardly shitsuck Marines on this board, I'll state for the record that I believe President Obama will win re-election and win all of Ohio's electoral votes.
 
ChinaBandit said:
Obama will not get above 48%.

Take it to the bank.

Since I said I'd leave the forum (when I thought for sure Obama was going to win) if Romney wins my chance to gloat next week is shot.
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Did you take it to the bank?
 
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