Atlantic Hurricane Season

November 1st is traditionally considered the end of the Atlantic Hurricane season. It was an interesting ( i.e., unusual ) year with 19 named storms. That's an active season; what was unusual is the fact that only one of 'em ( and that just briefly ) made landfall on U.S. territory. Amazing— the hurricane gods looked kindly on us this year.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/images/atlantictrackmap2010_300.jpg​

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/images/atlantictrackmap2010.jpg

The Windwards took a glancing blow last Saturday as Tomas passed between St. Lucia and St. Vincent. Tomas may strike Haiti on its way into the Atlantic.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL PASS NEAR ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT THIS AFTERNOON... AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH...78 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH...110 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON ST. LUCIA. A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH...82 KM/HR...WAS RECENTLY REPORTED ON MARTINIQUE.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT...AND MARTINIQUE...AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON AT ANY TIME.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

Click to expand...

Hurricane season began on 1 June.


Atlantic Tropical Storm ( Hurricane ) Names- 2011

1....Arlene ×
2....Bret ×
3....Cindy ×
4....Don ×
5....Emily ×
6....Franklin ×
7....Gert ×
8....Harvey ×
9....Irene ×
10..Jose ×
12..Katia ×
13..Lee ×
14..Maria ×
15..Nate ×
16..Ophelia ×
17..Philippe ×
18..Rina ×
19..Sean ×
20..Tammy
21..Vince
22..Whitney

Arlene, the first tropical storm of the season makes her début:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al01/AL012011_5W_003_A.GIF​

...ARLENE DISSIPATES OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...

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Bret was never a threat to make landfall.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al02/AL022011_5W_001_A.GIF​

Looks like Haiti is in line to get hit again...sad...

ami

We sure could use the rain.

TROPICAL STORM EMILY BECOMING DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING WESTWARD...STILL EXPECTED TO DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA...

RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... AND HAITI WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

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Not much to worry about unless you happen to be in Belize:

TS HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL IN BELIZE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT NEAR LANDFALL IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. THEREAFTER...HARVEY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.

Hmmmm,

The Weather Prognosticators are starting to go a bit nuts down here about Irene.

I have my monthly generator test set for Tuesday but I'm not overly worried. As always we'll see what happens.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-tropical-storm-irene-forms-082011,0,2303125.story

Cat

SeaCat said:

Hmmmm,

The Weather Prognosticators are starting to go a bit nuts down here about Irene.

I have my monthly generator test set for Tuesday but I'm not overly worried. As always we'll see what happens.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-tropical-storm-irene-forms-082011,0,2303125.story

Cat

Click to expand...

Heh! We'll see all righty. I've got a full tank on my generator too just in case.

We native Floridian's know the old rhyme about 'canes:

'June, too soon,
July, stand by,
August, come they must,
September, remember,
October, all over.'

trysail said:

The Floridians know— the Irene "doomcasts" have already commenced.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al09/AL092011_5NLW_003_0.GIF

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/fxc/201108202313_a.png

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_marine/ifp/images/nh2_waveheight_20110821_0600.png


​

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Yep but as usual I'm watchingand not worrying. Already the potential tracks are starting to trend offshore. (As I expected.)

Cat

SeaCat said:

Yep but as usual I'm watchingand not worrying. Already the potential tracks are starting to trend offshore. (As I expected.)

Cat

Click to expand...

Yep, this will be a significant rain event with some gusty winds and beach erosion. Even if there is a landfall on the peninsula, Irene will be weakened from passing over Hispaniola and if it tracks inland will blow itself out in no time.

I'm keeping an eye on it, though.

It's still looking good for us.

http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic?...&ww=0&mo=0&sl=0&ht=0&mg=0&ob=0&wf=1&ml=1&ql=0

Cat

Irene...a possible east coast Katrina?

we shall see...

ami

Praying people are smart, aware, prepare, plan, and stay safe. Take the warnings seriously, because better to be preemptive than stupid. At least there's a few days warning. Not everyone gets that. I don't live on the shore anymore, but all of my family and friends live within 10-20 minutes of the beach. Still a threat where I am and my biggest concern would be all of these trees. Glad we have a basement, just wish family members would drive out and have a safe place to stay if needed.

Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al092011
500 Am Edt Fri Aug 26 2011

...Irene Slightly Weaker...warnings And Watches Extended Northward
Along The U. S. East Coast...


Summary Of 500 Am Edt...0900 Utc...information
----------------------------------------------
Location...29.3n 77.2w
About 420 Mi...675 Km Ssw Of Cape Hatteras North Carolina
Maximum Sustained Winds...110 Mph...175 Km/h
Present Movement...n Or 360 Degrees At 14 Mph...22 Km/h
Minimum Central Pressure...942 Mb...27.82 Inches


Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes In Watches And Warnings With This Advisory...

The Hurricane Watch From The North Carolina/virginia Border To Sandy
Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay And Chesapeake Bay South
Of Smith Point Is Changed To A Hurricane Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch For Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point
Northward And The Tidal Potomac Is Changed To A Tropical Storm
Warning.

A Hurricane Watch Has Been Issued From North Of Sandy Hook New
Jersey To The Mouth Of The Merrimack River...including Long
Island...long Island Sound...block Island...marthas Vineyard And
Nantucket.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For...
* The Grand Bahama And The Abaco Islands
* Little River Inlet North Carolina Northward To Sandy Hook New
Jersey...including The Pamlico...albemarle...and Currituck
Sounds...delaware Bay...and Chesapeake Bay South Of Smith Point.

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For...
* North Of Sandy Hook To The Mouth Of The Merrimack River...
Including Long Island...long Island Sound...block Island...marthas
Vineyard And Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* North Of Edisto Beach South Carolina To Little River Inlet
* Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point Northward And The Tidal Potomac

A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected
Somewhere Within The Warning Area. A Warning Is Typically Issued
36 Hours Before The Anticipated First Occurrence Of
Tropical-storm-force Winds...conditions That Make Outside
Preparations Difficult Or Dangerous. Preparations To Protect Life
And Property Should Be Rushed To Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area Within 36 Hours.

A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible
Within The Watch Area. A Watch Is Typically Issued 48 Hours
Before The Anticipated First Occurrence Of Tropical-storm-force
Winds...conditions That Make Outside Preparations Difficult Or
Dangerous.

Interests Elsewhere In New England Should Monitor The Progress Of
Irene.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area In The United
States...including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...please
Monitor Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service
Forecast Office. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area Outside
The United States...please Monitor Products Issued By Your National
Meteorological Service.


Discussion And 48-hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 500 Am Edt...0900 Utc...the Center Of Hurricane Irene Was Located
Near Latitude 29.3 North...longitude 77.2 West. Irene Is Moving
Toward The North Near 14 Mph...22 Km/h...and This Motion Is
Expected To Continue During The Next 24 Hours. A Gradual Turn Toward
The North-northeast Should Begin Thereafter. On The Forecast
Track...the Core Of The Hurricane Will Pass Well Off The Coast Of
Northeastern Florida Today...approach The Coast Of North Carolina
Tonight...and Pass Near Or Over The North Carolina Coast Saturday.

Reports From An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate
That Maximum Sustained Winds Are Now Near 110 Mph...175 Km/h...with
Higher Gusts. Irene Is A Category Two Hurricane On The
Saffir-simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some Re-intensification Is
Possible Today...and Irene Is Expected To Be Near The Threshold
Between Category Two And Three As It Reaches The North Carolina
Coast.

Irene Is A Large Tropical Cyclone. Hurricane Force Winds Extend
Outward Up To 90 Miles...150 Km...from The Center...and Tropical
Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 290 Miles...465 Km. Noaa
Buoy 41010 Located About 140 Miles...220 Km East Of Cape Canaveral
Florida Recently Reported A Sustained Wind Of 56 Mph...90 Km/h...
And A Wind Gust Of 74 Mph...119 Km/h.

The Minimum Central Pressure Estimated From Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft Data Is 942 Mb...27.82 Inches.


Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...tropical Storm Conditions Are Subsiding Over The Northwestern
Bahamas. Tropical Storm Force Winds Are Expected Within The
Southern Portion Of The Warning Area Along The United States East
Coast By Late Today. Hurricane Force Winds Are Expected To First
Reach The Hurricane Warning Area Tonight Or Saturday Morning.

Storm Surge...an Extremely Dangerous Storm Surge Will Raise Water
Levels By As Much As 6 To 11 Feet Above Ground Level In The
Hurricane Warning Area In North Carolina...including The Albemarle
And Pamlico Sounds. Storm Surge Will Raise Water Levels By As Much
As 4 To 8 Feet Above Ground Level Over Southern Potions Of The
Chesapeake Bay...including Tributaries...and The Eastern Shore Of
The Delmarva Peninsula. Storm Surge Will Raise Water Levels By As
Much As 3 To 6 Feet Above Ground Level Along The Jersey Shore.
Near The Coast...the Surge Will Be Accompanied By Large...
Destructive...and Life-threatening Waves.

Rainfall...irene Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Accumulations Of
6 To 10 Inches...with Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 Inches...from
Eastern North Carolina Into Southeastern Virgina...eastern
Maryland... Delaware...eastern Pennsylvania...new Jersey...
Southeastern New York...long Island...western Connecticut...and
Western Massachusetts Through Monday Morning. These Rains Could
Cause Widespread Flooding And Life-threatening Flash Floods.

Surf...swells Generated By Irene Are Affecting Portions Of The Coast
Of The Southeastern United States. These Swells Will Cause
Life-threatening Surf And Rip Current Conditions.